Okkam expects Russia's advertising market to grow 20–22% in 2026
The Okkam group presented an updated forecast: Russia's advertising market will add 20–22% in 2026, brand spending will reach 2.1 trillion rubles, and retail media will take more than half of investments.
Russia's advertising market will grow 20–22% in 2026, with brand spending reaching 2.1 trillion rubles. This updated forecast was presented by the Okkam group at the "On Price and Value" conference.
The group revised its previous estimates: the market has decelerated, but growth rates remain in double digits. In March, Okkam forecast total market growth at 24%, traditional channels at 7%, and e-com and retail media at more than 40%.
What is changing in the market structure?
Classic media will add about 5%, e-com and retail media — 37%. Retail media will take slightly more than half of all advertising investments: 1.1 trillion out of 2.2 trillion rubles.
By channel, the updated forecast looks like this:
- digital: +6% instead of +5% in spring — better than expected;
- TV advertising: +5% instead of +10% — halved;
- outdoor advertising including WB: +6% instead of +8%;
- radio: +3% instead of +4%;
- print: zero growth.
What awaits the market in 2027?
Growth rates will remain at the same 20–22% and will stop decelerating. E-com and retail media will grow 30–35%, traditional channels — 6%. Digital will add 8%, TV advertising — 6%, OOH — 4%. Investments in print could fall by 3%, while radio will end the year with zero growth.
"2027 will be a time of reassembly for the advertising market: growth rates will stabilize, but the very structure of demand will continue to change. E-com and retail media will maintain high momentum, TV will develop across multiple environments simultaneously, and AI will increasingly influence consumer choice," said Darya Kurkina, Chief Operating Officer of the Okkam group.
According to her, growth will now need to be sought within the market itself: in the redistribution of demand, new audiences, channels, and technologies. It is important to evaluate not only the short-term effect of placements but also their contribution to brand sustainability, she noted.
Why does e-com remain the main driver?
The reach of the largest platforms remains high. According to Sber2V Analytics, from May 2025 to April 2026, Russians' spending on marketplaces grew 28.3% year-on-year. Okkam does not see an overall decline in demand across categories — demand is flowing from one segment to another.
TV consumption is becoming hybrid. According to a study by Yandex Ads, 66% of users mix different ways of watching TV content. Linear television still leads in viewing time. For the 18–24 audience, large screens in digital have nearly caught up with TV in weekly reach, while among 45+, it remains a threefold gap. Okkam's conclusion: it is too early to leave TV.
How does AI influence product choice?
The audience of AI services in Russia has reached 49 million people. Among popular features are showing similar products (36%), photo search (25%), and personalized recommendations (13%). Okkam believes it is important for brands to be present in neural search output: Alice's responses are formed organically, and the result depends in part on the quality of work with SEO, GEO, and AEO.
Another trend is the pragmatic young consumer. Already 35% of young people would like to choose a working profession, and the share of ninth-graders going to college has grown from 12% in 2001 to 42% in 2024.
What is holding the market back?
One pressure factor is the cautious consumer. According to Rosstat, retail trade turnover grew 5.4% from January to July 2026. According to SberIndex, consumer spending over the same period grew 12% in nominal terms and only 6% adjusted for inflation. Auto loans increased 25% from January to May 2026, according to the United Credit Bureau, while mortgage loans were taken 10% less frequently, according to the Central Bank of Russia.
Okkam speaks of the phenomenon of "happy worriers": 65% of Russians call themselves happy, and half of them worry about the future. This mix of calm and anxiety is becoming an important backdrop for brand communications, noted Darya Kurkina.
The largest advertisers continue to ramp up media support: the gap between their investments and those of other players is already manifold. A year ago, Okkam forecast growth in spending by the top 15 advertisers at no more than 15%. By the end of the first half, it stood at 14%.
Original: b2b.yandex.ru
More from Анна Соколова
153 articles
Related articles
- Elvis Presley Song Rights Holders Demand $41.1 Million from Anthropic
- Pinduoduo and Anthropic paid Kazakhstan 8 billion tenge in taxes
- Disney Will Show Super Bowl 2027 Through the Eyes of Star Wars Characters
- Mom's Touch to Open 50 Restaurants in Kazakhstan with Shin-Line
- Prada answered AI slop with a pencil: 6 million views and mice in the style of Disney