Online Shopping to Grow to $26 Trillion by 2036

The gap between types of markets will remain significant. By 2036, 20% of adults in developing markets will use credit cards, compared to 66% in developed countries. At the same time, the growth potential is enormous: at least 957 million people in developing countries already make digital payments but do not yet shop for goods online. This is an audience e-commerce can still win over.

What do people pay with instead of cards?

Local payment methods. Instead of international bank cards, shoppers use local solutions — from digital wallets to instant transfer systems (transfers of money between accounts within seconds via local infrastructure).

Cards, however, are far from done. In developing markets, they largely serve as a tool for installment payments — the so-called buy-now-pay-later model, purchasing in installments. According to EBANX, introducing installments increases transaction volumes by 9–19% in Brazil and by 3–30% in Chile. The figures may look modest. For retail, they are the difference between stagnation and growth.

What does this change for business?

The conclusions for companies operating in developing markets are fairly straightforward. Building a strategy around international credit cards means giving up on two-thirds of future shoppers. Local payment methods and installments are no longer an option — they are an infrastructure necessity. And marketers should rethink their target audience profile: the shopper of 2036 is older than commonly assumed and does not pay with a card in the traditional sense. Perhaps it's already time to stop targeting only the under-30s.