Okkam raises Retail Media market forecast to 1.5 trillion rubles by 2027

What will change in 2027?

Attracting new users, according to Okkam, will become more difficult amid inflation in media channels and weakening consumption. Under these conditions, the effectiveness assessment of placements will gradually shift from advertising spend share and ROAS to ROI and LTV.

Easy Commerce forecasts inflation for popular E-Retail Media formats next year at 15–20%. Key directions for market development:

• new formats and management platforms for retail media;
• active implementation of neural search by marketplaces;
• diversification of the media mix through niche "second-tier" marketplaces;
• development of social commerce.

The overall trend remains the same. In 2021, the online segment measured 20 billion rubles, offline — 41 billion. Offline retail, which five years ago exceeded online by twofold, will lag behind it by approximately four times by 2027.

Non-product categories and click-out

Analysts record the growing share of E-Retail Media in non-product categories. According to Easy Commerce calculations based on Mediascope data:

• in entertainment — from 12.2% in 2026 to 13.8% in 2027;
• in tourism — from 8% to 12.3%;
• in automotive — from 7.9% to 10%;
• in real estate — from 6.7% to 8.8%.

At the same time, the share of advertising that takes users outside the platform is growing. From January to August 2026, the share of click-out placements at Megamarket reached 16.5% versus 13.1% a year earlier, at Ozon — 14.3% versus 11.5%, at Wildberries — 6.6% versus 3.3%, at Detsky Mir — 5.6% versus 2%. The exception is Pyaterochka: there the indicator decreased from 6.8% to 5.4%.

Offline: inventory is growing faster than chains

Retail sales growth in Russia in 2026 is expected at 0.8% versus 2.6% by the end of 2025. Retail chains are expanding not so much their geography as the density of advertising within existing locations.

According to Okkam Trade Marketing estimates from the Okkam Playbook, in 2026 there were nearly 63,300 stores with media inventory — 5.1% more than a year earlier. Inventory itself reached 87,300 units — up 40.4% from last year's volume. Advertising inventory within chains grew almost eight times faster than the number of retail locations.

Okkam notes a change in pricing logic: instead of price per location calculated by geography, the market is shifting to price per location value — taking into account reach, inventory volume, and its visibility.