Okkam: Total Retail Media to reach 1.5 trillion rubles by 2027

The long-term trend remains unchanged

In 2021, the online segment totaled 20 billion rubles, offline — 41 billion. Retail, which five years ago exceeded online by double, will lag behind it by roughly four times by 2027.

Which formats are growing faster than others

According to Easy Commerce data based on Mediascope, E-Retail Media's share in entertainment will grow from 12.2% in 2026 to 13.8% in 2027, in tourism — from 8% to 12.3%, in automotive — from 7.9% to 10%, in real estate — from 6.7% to 8.8%.

Click-out is also growing — placements that lead users outside the platform. For January–August 2026, click-out share at Megamarket reached 16.5% versus 13.1% a year earlier, at Ozon — 14.3% versus 11.5%, at Wildberries — 6.6% versus 3.3%, at Detsky Mir — 5.6% versus 2%. Pyaterochka saw a decline from 6.8% to 5.4%.

What will change in 2027

Inflation for popular E-Retail Media formats in 2027 will amount to 15–20%, Easy Commerce forecasts. Acquiring new users will become harder amid media inflation and weakening consumption. Performance measurement will shift from SOV and ROAS to ROI and LTV.

Marketplaces are actively introducing neural search. Second-tier niche platforms and social commerce are developing.

Offline: inventory grows eight times faster than networks

Retail sales growth in Russia in 2026 is expected at 0.8% versus 2.6% for 2025. Networks are increasing not so much their geography as the density of advertising media within existing locations.

In 2026, according to Okkam Trade Marketing estimates, the country had 63,260 stores with media inventory — up 5.1% from 2025. The inventory itself grew by 40.4%, to 87,330 units.

The market is moving toward unified standards

Okkam, together with X5 Media, is developing unified metrics for in-store Retail Media. The work is coordinated by AKAR's committee on new media, co-chaired by Okkam's Trade Marketing Director Dmitry Larin. The committee is preparing an updated market volume estimate, a market map, and an open OTS calculation methodology applicable to any network.

In parallel, networks are shifting from price per location to price per its value — taking into account reach, inventory volume, and its visibility.