Pinduoduo Heads to Kazakhstan: 12.5 Million Parcels Already Delivered

"Goods there are cheaper, the selection is huge, and buyers vote with their wallets: with a noticeable price difference, they are willing to wait. Sellers in the low-price segment feel the pressure the most," Kashikov stated.

Bukhonin disagrees with the assessment of an immediate threat. In his view, Pinduoduo is two to three years away from significant influence: it needs to build infrastructure, reach customs agreements, and win buyers' trust. Until that happens, Kaspi and Wildberries remain the main platforms. Competition is also intensifying from other Chinese services — Temu in particular.

What does this change for sellers? Risks will grow gradually. Bukhonin calls the question of government support open: if the tax burden continues to rise, competing will become even harder.

"A local seller will survive if they have a predictable and lenient tax regime during this transition period. Otherwise, in two to three years the question won't be 'a competitor has arrived,' but 'no local sellers are left,'" the expert noted. That's why he became one of the founders of the ecoms.kz seller association and invites all online sellers to join.

Who Will Suffer First?

Pinduoduo works directly with manufacturers, so competing on price for identical goods is nearly impossible, Kashikov explains. The hardest hit will be non-branded categories:

• household goods;
• accessories;
• clothing;
• small items for the home.

The winner is the end consumer.

Service Instead of Price

Both experts agree: a price war with Chinese platforms is pointless. The bet should be placed on what they lack:

• availability of goods in warehouses in Kazakhstan, same-day or next-day delivery;
• easy returns, warranties, live consultation;
• own brands and added value, selling ready-made solutions;
• quality product cards and reviews — buyers on Kaspi and Wildberries compare more than just prices;
• diversification of channels: Kaspi, Wildberries, Ozon, own websites, social media, offline;
• niches that are harder for the Chinese: certifiable and oversized goods.

Bukhonin advises gradually exiting categories where goods cost more than Chinese equivalents by the price of delivery and resale.

What Can the State Do?

Legislative changes, according to Bukhonin, should be developed with the participation of seller associations. It's important to ensure equal taxation conditions for foreign platforms and local sellers — he called Pinduoduo's consultations with the State Revenue Committee the right practice.

"Second — predictability. A seller needs to understand the rules two to three years ahead, not learn about new rates and thresholds every season. Third — don't add burden to your own sellers right now. A seller doesn't need benefits. What's needed is for them not to be squeezed harder than a foreign competitor. Then profit will appear too," Bukhonin listed.

Kashikov formulates three steps for the state:

1. Level the conditions. Parcels under 200 euros are imported duty-free and VAT-free, as a rule without certification or labeling. Kazakh entrepreneurs pay an import duty and 16% VAT and go through all procedures. Since July, duties and VAT apply to parcels over 200 euros, but the main flow of inexpensive goods remains sensitive to this difference.
2. A separate tax regime for e-commerce. Kashikov proposes a 1–2% turnover tax instead of the base 4% rate of the simplified regime, deductions for B2B operations, and simplified labeling of small batches.
3. Develop domestic logistics: affordable warehouses, fulfillment (storage and order processing services), inexpensive domestic delivery.

There's no need to ban Pinduoduo, Kashikov sums up. The state's task is to create conditions under which Kazakh entrepreneurs can compete on equal terms. The consumer, however, has already voted with their wallet.